The SA unemployment rate decreases slightly to 32.7% in Q4 2022

By Oyisa George

Statistics South Africa has released the findings of the Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) for quarter 4 of 2022, displaying a slight decline in the nation’s unemployment rate.   

Nearly half of South African women of working age are not involved in the labour force. There are also variations in long-term unemployment according to factors including sex and level of education, amongst others. In a global sense, those with less level of education and women are, the most affected by the increasing unemployment rate.

According to the Quarterly labour force survey that was produced by Stats SA, there are around 28 thousand more unemployed people in the fourth quarter of 2022 than in the third quarter of 2022. Comparing both of these quarters (Q4 and Q3) of 2022, the unemployment rate in South Africa declined by 0.2 % to 32%.

“In the fourth quarter of 2022, South Africa had 7. 8 million persons who were without work, looking for work and available to work, of which 6.1 million were in long-term unemployment and 1.7 million in short-term unemployment. Findings from Q4:2022 show that long-term unemployment has almost doubled since Q4:2012, while short-term unemployment has increased by 0.2 million persons”, stated Stats SA.

In agreement with the official expectation, the increase in the rolling blackouts indicates that this year’s economic growth will only be between 0.3% and 0.9%, which is hardly going to lead to a hiring spree among struggling companies.

“South Africa’s economy has many structural challenges thwarting the creation of jobs on the scale needed to address this scourge. But the energy crisis is clearly the biggest shock at the moment to both economic growth and employment levels,” stated Daily Maverick

Due to a PwC assessment, in 2022, power outages would have a five percentage point negative impact on real GDP growth.

“Without a reliable supply of electricity, our efforts to grow an inclusive economy that creates jobs and reduces poverty will not succeed,” Ramaphosa noted that at the State of the Nation.

Since 2016, unemployment rates continued to rise, hitting a high of 7.9 million unemployed people in quarter 4 of 202 while short-term unemployment peaked in quarter 4 of 2020 at 30 million during the national lockdown, long term unemployment also reached its highest point during this time (6.3 million) during the same time.

Nearly 80% of those without jobs have been looking for employment, be available for employment or both for a year or longer. Only 21.7% of unemployed people, less than one in five were experiencing interim unemployment. 

Community and social services (-122 000), agriculture (-12 000) and construction (-12 000) all had employment losses. Between the third and fourth quarters of 2022, employment in the formal sector increased by 143 000 people, while employment in the unofficial sector decreased by 15 000 people.

Between quarter 3 of 2022 and quarter 4 of 2022, five provinces saw an increase in the number of employed people. The Western Cape, North West, Eastern Cape, and Northern Cape also had a significant increase in employment. During the same period of time, job losses have been recorded in Limpopo, Gauteng, Mpumalanga and Free State.

With a 6.9% increase, Western Cape experienced the largest quarter-to-quarter change in employment. Gauteng (+381 000), the Western Cape (+333 000), Mpumalanga (-13 000) and Free State (-3000).

The labour federation COSATU and its members were not impressed with this decline in unemployment. A 42.6% unemployment rate is unsustainable for any community. When four out of ten people struggle to obtain employment to support their loved one, also that the general public should not be proud of this percentage.

“Fourth quarter is also an outlier because the festive season part-time work triggered by festive spending work distorts the statistics,” said the COSATU.  

The sector that employed 103 000 more people during the quarter and saw the most job growth was financial services. A huge 122 000 positions were lost in the community and social services sector, however.

When the pandemic first hit South Africa in 2020, 2.2 million people found themselves out of work, and the country has since struggled to regain that employment. The official unemployment rate hit new highs in the ensuing quarters, continuing until the start of 2022.

Black women continue to experience the highest levels of unemployment, which among black people as a whole stays stubbornly high. In the fourth quarter of 2022, there were more than 51% of black women who were unemployed.

The unemployment rate for graduates (10.6%) is 22.1% points lower than the official national unemployment average. In the previous ten years, the rate of jobless graduates more than doubled from 4.4% in 2012 to 10.6% in 2022.

“Of the 7.8-million unemployed people in the fourth quarter of 2022, as many as 50.4% did not have matric and 39.5% had completed matric. Almost 7% of the unemployed had other tertiary qualifications, while only 2.7% of unemployed people were graduates,” said Stats SA. 

With a population-to-employment ratio or absorption rate, of 39.4 % South Africa is similar to war-torn Afghanistan.

According to Risenga Maluleka, the statistician general, the apartheid system of city planning is one of the reasons why people in rural areas struggle to find employment because they are located far from job centres. He also noted that the unemployment rate for Black Africans was higher than the national average.

“The country's failure to absorb unskilled workers, who constitute almost a third of the labour force, was a looming risk for policymakers,” said the statistician general, Risenga Maluleka to Reuters.

 The unemployment rate is still higher than it was before the pandemic, at 30.1% despite recent declines, and it may continue to be high as the country’s ongoing energy problem continues to hinder growth. The Treasury predicted that over the next three years, growth would be a pitiful 1.4% in its recently submitted budget review. In 2023, the economy is only predicted to expand by at least 5% annually if unemployment is to be reduced in a sustainable manner.